Risk management calculator
Before you ask "how much can I make?", ask "what happens when I lose ten times in a row?". This calculator turns your risk per trade, reward-to-risk ratio and win rate into the numbers that decide whether an account survives.
- Risk amount
- 100.00
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
- Expectancy per trade
- +0.35 R
- Average result per trade
- +35.00
- Expected balance after 100 trades
- 14,182.01
- Losses in a row to lose 50%
- 69
- Chance of 5+ losses in a row in 100 trades
- 92%
- Chance of 8+ losses in a row in 100 trades
- 31%
| Losses in a row | Drawdown | Balance left | Gain needed to recover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | −3.0% | 9,702.99 | +3.1% |
| 5 | −4.9% | 9,509.90 | +5.2% |
| 10 | −9.6% | 9,043.82 | +10.6% |
The expected balance assumes future trades match these averages. Real results vary around it.
What the numbers mean
- Break-even win rate
- The share of winning trades you need just to stay flat (before costs) with your reward-to-risk ratio: 1 ÷ (1 + R:R). With 1 : 2 it is 33.3%; with 1 : 1 it is 50%.
- Expectancy
- The average result per trade in "R" (multiples of the amount risked): win rate × R:R − loss rate. A positive value means the method earns on average if the win rate is real; a negative one means more trades only lose more.
- Losing streaks
- How much of the account is gone after 3, 5 and 10 losses in a row, and how much you then need to gain just to get back. Losses and recoveries are not symmetric: −50% needs +100%.
- Chance of a long streak
- The probability of at least one run of 5 or 8 losses in a row somewhere in the number of trades you enter, for your win rate. Long streaks are normal, not bad luck.
Example
Balance $10,000, risk 1% per trade, reward-to-risk 2, win rate 45%, 100 trades.
- Break-even win rate 33.3%, so 45% leaves a margin.
- Expectancy = 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 = +0.35 R, about +$35 per trade at the start.
- Ten losses in a row cost about 9.6% of the account.
- Over 100 trades at a 45% win rate, a run of 5 losses in a row is very likely (most accounts will see one).
Now change the risk to 5%: ten losses in a row then cost about 40%, and you need a gain of about 67% just to recover. The method did not change; only the position size did.
Rules that follow from the numbers
- Fix the risk per trade as a percentage (often 0.5% to 2%) and keep it the same after wins and after losses.
- Set a daily and a weekly loss limit (for example 3% a day): stopping after a bad day prevents emotional trades.
- Measure your win rate honestly from a journal of at least 50 to 100 trades before trusting the expectancy.
- Be careful with fixed monthly targets. A target such as "10% a month" pushes traders to raise the risk exactly when they are behind.
The "expected balance" line assumes your future trades match the averages you entered. Real results vary around it, sometimes a lot. This is education, not a promise of returns.
Frequently asked questions
How much should I risk per trade?
Many traders keep it between 0.5% and 2% of the balance. The calculator shows why: at 1% a 10-trade losing streak costs under 10%, at 5% it costs about 40%.
What is a break-even win rate?
The win rate at which wins and losses cancel out for a given reward-to-risk ratio: 1 ÷ (1 + R:R). Above it the method earns on average (before costs), below it it loses.
What does expectancy in R mean?
R is the amount you risk on a trade. An expectancy of +0.35 R means that, on average, each trade earns 0.35 times the amount risked. With $100 risk that is about $35 per trade.
Why do I need to gain more than I lost to recover?
Because the gain is calculated on a smaller balance. After −20% you need +25%, after −50% you need +100%.
How likely is a losing streak?
More likely than most people expect. With a 45% win rate, a run of 5 losses in a row within 100 trades is very likely. Enter your own win rate and number of trades to see the exact probability.
Education only, not investment advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.